Vinyl Outsells CD but what it does not really say

[arj]

Many of you might have read the mentioned article ie; https://www.npr.org/2023/03/10/1162568704/vinyl-outsells-cds-first-time-since-1987-records?

The pandemic led to a spike in demand for vinyl records, driven largely by younger buyers. Vinyl has become a major part of artists' marketing campaigns.

Couple of things stand out from here and other sources ( was in a airport lounge with time to kill so googled..or as whats called today "Researched " it )
1. Music on physical media makes up only 16 % and the rest is streaming services
2. Streaming services grows at 14.7% YoY and is at approx 29.4B
3. Vinyl is growing at 17% and is 1.2B with 43M Vinyls
4. CD is falling and is at less than 0.5B with 33M CDs approx 18%
5. downloaded music services is falling by 20% and at less than .5B ...almost same as CD

Not sure how long vinyl will grow but looking at the new vinyl plans coming up , how often you see it on screen/movies and the number of vinyl players. being introduced, looks like its there to stay but at only 3-5% of the market in value and even less in volume.

It very well might be the medium of choice for those who want something physical . While streaming will perhaps the something more and more folks will use to explore and listen to music , it might have some folks buying some of those albums on vinyl.

So overall vinyl might still grow but perhaps will always remain a minuscule component of the music market.

 

[sachinchavan 15865]

There’s no doubt the growth in streaming would continue. Because going by those figures, over 90% of music seems to be released via streaming. Streaming has become the sole mode of music consumption for virtually all paying consumers (not same as listeners - radio still remains a significant mode of listening to music).

It’s impossible to see how CDs can survive in a world of FLAC and Hi-Res streaming. I’d imagine most of the new CD sales that happen today is for collectors. And that will always remain a niche segment.

What one isn’t sure of though is whether the vinyl revival is a passing fashion or here to stay. As streaming goes higher res and DACs improve, the audible difference between analog and digital music would keep going down. At some point it’d probably not make sense, even for audiophiles to justify the cost and effort of analog. It might be an interesting statistic to find out how often do those who buy vinyl actually play it (vs adorning their shelves)?

With that background, the more interesting questions for the industry are, how does streaming make and distribute money? How do streaming services differentiate themselves? What kind of streaming products come up in future to cater to different segments? For example, can there be a premium subscription for ‘early music release’ or ‘live relays’? And so on.

 

[Yelamanchili manohar]

There’s no doubt the growth in streaming would continue. Because going by those figures, over 90% of music seems to be released via streaming. Streaming has become the sole mode of music consumption for virtually all paying consumers (not same as listeners - radio still remains a significant mode of listening to music).

It’s impossible to see how CDs can survive in a world of FLAC and Hi-Res streaming. I’d imagine most of the new CD sales that happen today is for collectors. And that will always remain a niche segment.

What one isn’t sure of though is whether the vinyl revival is a passing fashion or here to stay. As streaming goes higher res and DACs improve, the audible difference between analog and digital music would keep going down. At some point it’d probably not make sense, even for audiophiles to justify the cost and effort of analog. It might be an interesting statistic to find out how often do those who buy vinyl actually play it (vs adorning their shelves)?

With that background, the more interesting questions for the industry are, how does streaming make and distribute money? How do streaming services differentiate themselves? What kind of streaming products come up in future to cater to different segments? For example, can there be a premium subscription for ‘early music release’ or ‘live relays’? And so on.

Some excellent points there Sachin ..

I do have my doubts if the vinyl resurgence will continue at the current prices. It does look like novelty to make a cool statement strutting pics of decks and records on Instagram. But I don't think many will buy more than a few records once they have a few to spin and show off before friends. Not at the current prices atleast. A youngster could get a good smart phone for the price of a few vinyls. So it's definitely not happening.

 

[coaltrain]

 

[Nitin K]

As the streaming quality will increase, CD's may eventually get phased out. The best part of streaming is the convenience that the majority in today's fast life would get attracted to in the form of playlists without the need to change any media. Plus no wear n tear & maintenance of physical media. With time I guess the digital quality may close or at least reduce the gap between analog sound in terms of tone. Maybe hardisks or SSD's may be more popular in the future for storing digital tracks as many people choose to store their favourite songs that way if it has to be stored physically .

Physical media like Vinyl & CD's do have its own charm though for a few people.

 

[Bhaskar Jyoti Talapatra]

Vinyls were once born and till date they remain as an attractive physical media. Recently many old bollywood numbers are remastered and they are being sold in the form of 180 gms vinyl. This certainly shows vinyl resurgence though this growth can't be compared with the growth in streaming services. People who love analogue warmth are after vinyls and they spend money to collect their fav records. But again the number of that kind of people is small. Now people choose convenience over everything so most of them like different streaming services. Young people are ok with their smartphone , local files stored in mobile or streaming . Even elderly people don't oppose streaming rather they are trying to get accustomed to this new mode of listening to music along side vinyls. I, Personally would always prefer vinyl but honestly speaking the sky rocketing price of vinyls sometimes makes me disappointed and then I think isn't it better to listen to a particular track playing FLAC or WAV or spotify etc? IMHO in indian market we should not expect come back of cassette tape or CDs , here we are pleased with downloaded mp3 or even lossy files playing Gana or YT but again vinyls will remain for ever . People like myself will save money bulldozing other expenses and buy vinyls.
Regards

 

[arj]

While we may have opinions and thoughts the facts will only be in the Nos and the numbers show that only 2 mediums are showing a trend to increase.
Vinyl at 2-5% will always be Niche and streaming the populistic.

As streaming goes higher res and DACs improve, the audible difference between analog and digital music would keep going down. At some point it’d probably not make sense, even for audiophiles to justify the cost and effort of analog. It might be an interesting statistic to find out how often do those who buy vinyl actually play it (vs adorning their shelves)?

On the audible difference , for new music , yes and i might argue its already there . For old music the divide will remain since the market is small and hence may not justify remastering.

Even today the cost of setting up a good sounding analog setup and buying the records as well may not justify the cost for most. eg today I have stopped buying vinyl unless it something special .

Your question on Hoard vs listen is interesting and the only other example i can think of is about buying books and not reading them. there is something to be said about owning that music and that might be the only reason someone will buy a vinyl today. i am guilty of that for both books and vinyl and while I have given away huge lots of books to libraries , the vinyl (And CDs) stay

With that background, the more interesting questions for the industry are, how does streaming make and distribute money? How do streaming services differentiate themselves? What kind of streaming products come up in future to cater to different segments? For example, can there be a premium subscription for ‘early music release’ or ‘live relays’? And so on.

Perhaps the value of a streaming is now primarily on
1. Quality and quantity/breadth of their content
2. Their Algorithm ie customer experience for searching and playing and perhaps
3) Pricing
..these are my personal reasons and priority

Spotify is perhaps a leader in 2 . I have read reports where they pick music better than the listener itself ( my wife swears by it) . So maybe its the Algorithm which is going to be the differentiator but else its a volume game.

 

[sachinchavan 15865]

Perhaps the value of a streaming is now primarily on
1. Quality and quantity/breadth of their content
2. Their Algorithm ie customer experience for searching and playing and perhaps
3) Pricing

For the biggies (Spotify et al), yes. But I see a case for curated and/or focused streaming as well. ‘Ragya’ is a local example - it also sources (Indian classical recordings) directly from the artists. There will always be takers for ‘exclusive content’ if curated and presented well. We see MUBI or DocuBay similarly in the video streaming space.

I can also see a market for streaming services that allow significant app (UI) configuration at the user end. I for one would like to see my music as albums and not as playlists. Or search by genre/lyricist/composer/mood. In a world of metadata, it shouldn’t be difficult for an innovative player to provide customisation beyond mere suggestions). In other words, I’d like to see premium streaming services for the advanced users. And believe there’s space for it. (On the other hand, the Hungamas or Gaanas of the world can’t compete with Spotify/Apple Music/Tidal by merely aping them).

 

[arj]

For the biggies (Spotify et al), yes. But I see a case for curated and/or focused streaming as well. ‘Ragya’ is a local example - it also sources (Indian classical recordings) directly from the artists. There will always be takers for ‘exclusive content’ if curated and presented well. We see MUBI or DocuBay similarly in the video streaming space.

I can also see a market for streaming services that allow significant app (UI) configuration at the user end. I for one would like to see my music as albums and not as playlists. Or search by genre/lyricist/composer/mood. In a world of metadata, it shouldn’t be difficult for an innovative player to provide customisation beyond mere suggestions). In other words, I’d like to see premium streaming services for the advanced users. And believe there’s space for it. (On the other hand, the Hungamas or Gaanas of the world can’t compete with Spotify/Apple Music/Tidal by merely aping them).

good thoughts , so much can happen in that space. Maybe Apple launching a classical only app is a start to this.

 

[sachinchavan 15865]

good thoughts , so much can happen in that space. Maybe Apple launching a classical only app is a start to this.

Long overdue since they bought (and shut down) Primephonic. Hopefully it triggers innovative differentiation from other players.